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--- em:20482030 [2023/11/09 16:27] – [Where Are We Now?] Typo b.walzer
+++ em:20482030 [2023/12/10 21:54] (current) – Typo b.walzer
@@ Line 6: / Line 6: @@
 =====Where did the 2030 cutoff come from?=====
-I am reasonably certain that the ideas here came from an influential paper released in 2004 by Arjen K. Lenstra((https://infoscience.epfl.ch/record/164539/files/NPDF-32.pdf|Key Lengths: Contribution to The Handbook of Information Security)) that showed this year in a table. Here is a simplified version of the table:
+I am reasonably certain that the ideas here came from an influential paper released in 2004 by Arjen K. Lenstra(([[https://infoscience.epfl.ch/record/164539/files/NPDF-32.pdf|Key Lengths: Contribution to The Handbook of Information Security]])) that showed this year in a table. Here is a simplified version of the table:
 ^ Modulus Bit Length ^ Conservative Year ^ Optimistic Year ^
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 Some examples of symmetric encryption schemes are: [[wp>Advanced_Encryption_Standard|AES]], [[wp>Salsa20#ChaCha_variant|ChaCha20]] and [[wp>Camellia_(cipher)|Camellia]].
-One extra key bit doubles the difficulty here. That's 128-112=16 difficulty doublings over the 11 year period. So an implicit assumption that the capability available for breaking elliptic curves will double every 11*12/16=8.25 months. That's a bit faster than the 9 month double exponential assumption that in turn comes from the assumption that available processing power and algorithmic capability are each doubling every 18 months. We know that that is not true for processing power.
+One extra key bit doubles the difficulty here. That's 128-112=16 difficulty doublings over the 11 year period. So an implicit assumption that the capability available for breaking symmetric encryption will double every 11*12/16=8.25 months. That's a bit faster than the 9 month double exponential assumption that in turn comes from the assumption that available processing power and algorithmic capability are each doubling every 18 months. We know that that is not true for processing power.
 The idea that the algorithmic capability against symmetric encryption might be doubling every 18 months is fairly surprising. A regular increase here is not something that is normally assumed. Perhaps there was some sort of "debt" with respect to key length that we are making up for in this time period. It might be good to apply the Bitcoin thought experiment as previously seen in this article as a sort of sanity check.